As gas prices at California pumps hit $5.50 a gallon this week, Democratic candidates for governor are scrambling to show they actually care about your wallet. Some are pushing big ideas to lower prices, while others are dismissing those plans as political theater. Meanwhile, experts say the real story is way more complicated than campaign soundbites suggest.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan are both trying to make affordability their signature issue. Villaraigosa wants to pause a bunch of state environmental policies that he claims are driving up gas prices, including carbon emissions limits at refineries and fuel standards designed to reduce carbon. According to state estimates, these policies add roughly 50 cents per gallon to what you’re paying. Mahan is taking a different approach, proposing a temporary suspension of California’s 61-cent-per-gallon state gas tax for the duration of the Iran conflict.

But here’s where it gets messy: The higher-polling Democratic candidates aren’t buying it. Tom Steyer and Eric Swalwell both dismissed the proposals as unserious this week. Steyer wants to focus on preventing oil companies from reaping excess profits, while Swalwell is pushing for stable fuel inventories as California transitions to clean energy. Katie Porter’s campaign didn’t even respond to questions about the issue.

Experts paint a much different picture than what these candidates are pushing. UC Santa Barbara political science professor Paasha Mahdavi points out that the current price spike is almost entirely driven by global oil markets and the Iran conflict, not state policy. The real problem is that California’s starting point is so much higher than the national average. While gas costs nearly $3.80 nationally, it’s hitting $5.50 here.

It’s more complicated than just taxes and climate rules. State analyses show California has an unexplained “mystery surcharge” that oil companies add to gas prices. Between 2015 and 2024, this premium averaged about 41 cents per gallon, costing drivers an estimated $59 billion. Stanford legal scholar Michael Wara says this markup is something the industry controls, not a result of state policy.

The oil industry, unsurprisingly, disagrees. They blame California’s policies for driving refineries and crude production out of state, which they say forces higher prices. But as Villaraigosa and Mahan push their proposals, neither has broken through yet. Current polling shows both candidates stuck at just 3% support, with a quarter of voters still undecided. Without serious ad spending to promote their gas plans, experts question whether these proposals will even reach voters.

Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, is skeptical that suspending the gas tax would actually help drivers, since oil companies might just pocket the savings. Plus, there’s a bigger problem: Once you remove the tax to fix the immediate crisis, putting it back on later becomes politically impossible. You’d essentially be asking voters to accept a 60-cent-per-gallon price increase all at once. Just ask Gray Davis about how that worked out in 2003.