Rivian is about to attempt something pretty wild: launching an electric SUV at a speed that would rival Tesla’s most successful product. The company’s R2 is set to become one of the fastest-selling EVs in U.S. history if it hits its targets, and honestly, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the startup.

Here’s the deal. Rivian told investors it expects to sell between 20,000 and 25,000 R2s this year, with customer deliveries likely starting in June. If they hit even the lower end of that number, they’d match the speed of the Tesla Model Y, which took four months to reach 20,000 sales when it launched in 2020. Rivian is aiming to do it in about six months, which would put them on par with the Honda Prologue’s launch in 2024.

For context, other popular EVs took way longer to reach that milestone. The Chevy Equinox EV needed eight months, the Ford Mustang Mach-E took a similar timeframe, and Korean vehicles like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 needed 10 to 11 months respectively. Even Tesla’s Model 3 had a rougher ride, thanks to Elon Musk’s famous “production hell”. The timing matters because this is Rivian’s shot at proving it can actually pull off mass production and profitability. If the R2 flops, shareholders could bail, and the company’s entire billion-dollar strategy falls apart.

But here’s where things get complicated. Rivian is launching into a market that’s way less friendly than when those other EVs debuted. Congress and President Trump killed the $7,500 federal EV tax credit last year, which basically made every electric car more expensive overnight. Add Trump’s chaotic tariffs into the mix, and vehicles cost even more. Major automakers are scaling back their EV plans as emissions regulations loosen up, so the pressure is definitely on.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe has tried to spin this as an opportunity, arguing that the EV market lacks affordable options. The company promised the R2 would start at $45,000, which honestly sounds compelling. The problem? That base price model isn’t hitting the market right away. Rivian is launching with a pricier dual-motor version instead, and they haven’t confirmed when that cheaper option will actually be available. The company removed “Starting at $45,000” from its website in early February, though it told us they’re still committed to that price point.

Wall Street remains skeptical. Some analysts think Rivian’s launch expectations are too aggressive, and others estimate the R2’s average selling price could hover around $60,000 or higher for years while production ramps up in Illinois. Still, there’s real demand for compact electric SUVs at this price point, other brands like Volvo, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz are planning similar vehicles, but they won’t arrive in the U.S. until later this year, giving Rivian a competitive window.

The bottom line: Rivian’s entire future depends on nailing the R2 launch. The company has simplified manufacturing compared to its current lineup, which should help. But if they stumble, it’s game over.