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The San Francisco Frontier | Est. 2025
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California's Governor Race Is Officially Crowded—And Democrats Should Be Worried

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The field is officially locked in, and it’s a mess. Eight Democrats and two Republicans have filed their paperwork to run for California governor in the June 2 primary, and honestly, the Democrats’ chances of keeping the office are looking shakier by the day.

Here’s the lineup: Xavier Becerra (former HHS secretary and California Attorney General), Matt Mahan (San Jose mayor), Katie Porter (former Orange County congresswoman), Tom Steyer (billionaire entrepreneur), Eric Swalwell (Bay Area congressman), Tony Thurmond (state superintendent of public instruction), Antonio Villaraigosa (ex-LA mayor), and Betty Yee (former state Controller) are all running on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, you’ve got Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, a Fox News contributor who used to advise British Prime Minister David Cameron.

Steyer basically waited until the last possible second to officially file on Friday, making him the final candidate to jump in the race. Earlier this week, former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon bailed out and threw his support behind Swalwell instead.

Here’s where things get spicy: California uses a “top two” primary system, meaning the two candidates with the most votes in June, regardless of party, move on to November’s general election. Sounds fair, right? Not so much when you’ve got eight Democrats splitting the vote while the two Republican frontrunners are way ahead in polling and have more unified support from their base.

State party leader Rusty Hicks literally begged candidates without a real shot at winning to drop out before the filing deadline. He even wrote an open letter asking those who stayed in to at least drop out by April 15 if they weren’t making “meaningful progress”. Spoiler alert: eight out of nine Democrats ignored him and filed anyway.

The numbers are genuinely concerning. Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell’s statistical modeling puts the odds of a Republican-versus-Republican general election at 27 percent. That’s a huge risk for California Democrats, especially considering what a GOP governor could do to abortion rights, climate policy, and pretty much everything else progressives have fought for in this state.

When asked about this nightmare scenario at a recent gubernatorial forum, most Democrats brushed it off, insisting they’d be the best choice. Villaraigosa reckoned that once Trump endorses a Republican candidate, GOP voters will consolidate behind that person. Katie Porter was basically the only Democrat who took the threat seriously, calling it “terrifying” and acknowledging that yes, there’s definitely a real risk here.

The secretary of state’s office will verify everyone’s paperwork and release the official primary ballot by March 21. Until then, Democrats are stuck hoping that either the Republican race fractures or their own candidates start dropping out to clear the field. Otherwise, California might be looking at its first Republican governor since 2010.

AUTHOR: mei

SOURCE: CalMatters