The 2026 California gubernatorial race is officially happening, and it’s shaping up to be a chaotic free-for-all that could fundamentally change the state’s political landscape. Ten candidates, eight Democrats and two Republicans, have officially filed their paperwork for the June 2 primary, and Democratic Party leaders are quietly panicking about what might come next.

Here’s the thing: the two Republican frontrunners have way more consolidated support than their Democratic competitors. While Republicans are expected to rally around one candidate, Democrats are fragmented across eight different campaigns. This creates a real possibility that two Republicans could face off in November, completely shutting out Democrats in a state that’s been blue for over a decade. According to statistical modeling by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell, there’s a 27% chance of an all-Republican general election matchup.

The Democratic candidates in the race include Xavier Becerra (former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary), Katie Porter (former U.S. representative from Orange County), Tom Steyer (billionaire entrepreneur), Eric Swalwell (Bay Area U.S. representative), Tony Thurmond (state superintendent of public instruction), Antonio Villaraigosa (former Los Angeles mayor), Betty Yee (former state Controller), and Matt Mahan (San Jose mayor). On the Republican side, you’ve got Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News contributor Steve Hilton.

State Democratic Party leader Rusty Hicks literally begged candidates without a “viable path” to drop out before the filing deadline last Friday. He even set an April 15 cutoff date, asking candidates to reassess if they couldn’t make “meaningful progress”. Spoiler alert: it didn’t work. Eight of the nine Democrats who had announced stayed in the race, and Steyer filed at literally the last minute on Friday.

When asked about this nightmare scenario at a February forum, most Democratic candidates just shrugged and insisted they were the best choice. Villaraigosa suggested Trump’s endorsement would consolidate Republican voters around one candidate. Porter, though, actually acknowledged the risk. “I think it is terrifying to think about what Trump would do to Californians if we had a governor who at every turn cooperated with him rather than stood up for our California values,” she said.

The secretary of state’s office will verify all the paperwork and publish an official list of primary candidates by March 21. From there, the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to November. For Democrats hoping to avoid an all-Republican general election, it’s going to come down to whether voters consolidate around one candidate or keep splitting their votes across the field. The stakes couldn’t be higher for California’s future.